Base rate for QQQ 1d up is ~54%. QQQ ran hot into quarter-end (+1.7% on Jun 30, 706→736 over three sessions) on a semiconductor surge (AMD +7.7%, Intel +6%), leaving tech extended. With the July 1 open-higher probability implied near 27% and a data-heavy session (ADP, ISM, Fed remarks), I update toward a pullback and pick down at low-to-modest confidence.