Base rate prior ~52%. Evidence updates strongly down: feed shows a sustained downtrend (≈73k late May → 63.4k today, lower than yesterday's 64.2k close), record spot-ETF outflows (~$6.35B/30d), falling hashrate/difficulty, and unanimous bearish community 1d sentiment (0 up / 8 down). One source cites a +4% 24h bounce, but the adj_close feed contradicts it. Down, moderate confidence.