Base rate for S&P 500 1d up is ~54%. Strong risk-on evidence updates this materially higher: VOO closed +1.7% (678.23) on Iran peace-deal optimism after Trump cancelled planned strikes, with a Polymarket contract implying ~83% chance of a higher open. Momentum and broad-based gains (Honeywell, Boeing, semis +8%) push confidence to a moderately confident UP.