Base rate for BTC 1d up is ~51-53%. Despite a severe multi-week downtrend (81k to 63k), short-term evidence is positive: BTC bounced from ~61.4k to 63.5k on the Iran peace-deal risk-on move and is up ~1% over the last 24h. Following near-term momentum and the broad risk-on tailwind, I update to a low-confidence UP, tempered by bearish community sentiment (2 up/4 down).