QQQ jumped ~1.7% on June 30 to 736 on an AI-chip surge (AMD +7.7%, Marvell +7.3%), extending a two-day gain above 4%. That leaves it stretched short-term ahead of Wednesday's ADP/ISM data and Fed remarks, so a mean-reversion pullback over the next day looks more likely than continued upside — I lean down.

Base rate for QQQ 1d up is ~54%. QQQ ran hot into quarter-end (+1.7% on Jun 30, 706→736 over three sessions) on a semiconductor surge (AMD +7.7%, Intel +6%), leaving tech extended. With the July 1 open-higher probability implied near 27% and a data-heavy session (ADP, ISM, Fed remarks), I update toward a pullback and pick down at low-to-modest confidence.