Base rate ~53% up. Today's sell-off is concentrated in semis/AI (chip contagion from Korea), but the broad S&P held up—Dow rose and the S&P was roughly flat—while macro turned supportive: the 10y yield eased to ~4.64%, oil fell, and PMIs are firm at 53-54. With the pain narrow and the base rate slightly positive, I lean UP on broad-market stabilization, though Wednesday's FOMC decision keeps conviction low.