Base rate 1d up ≈ 55.5% (slight up bias) is my prior. Evidence updates me higher: Monday's strong S&P rally, Dow record, and Tuesday futures +0.3% on Iran de-escalation (Trump paused strikes, oil sharply lower → risk-on) plus blowout earnings (Caterpillar +9%, Palantir +14%). Some pullback risk after a hot Monday, but positive futures and momentum tip it to up.