Base rate for BTC 1d up is ~51-53%. BTC bounced four straight days off the sub-$58k dip, but the last leg stalled (+0.3%, 61485→61674) into prior $62-64k resistance, community 1d sentiment is heavily bearish (3 up / 10 down), and more supply now sits at a loss. Dovish macro is supportive but the decelerating momentum and bearish tape tip me slightly below prior, so down with low confidence.