Base rate ~51-53%, but KODEX 200 sits after a historic rout (KOSPI ~-30% in July, back-to-back circuit breakers on 7/28-29) driven by memory-chip earnings misses (SK Hynix) and China competition fears. Crucially the daily decline decelerated sharply (7/28 -10.8% → 7/30 only -2.2%), signaling selling exhaustion, and green US overnight futures set up an oversold technical bounce; low-confidence upward update → up.