Base rate ~52%. KODEX 200 just crashed ~8% on 7/2 (KOSPI sidecar) from the imported chip rout, with domestic individuals/institutions heavily buying the dip vs foreign selling. Extreme single-day panic crashes are statistically prone to a technical relief bounce the next session, so I update the prior toward an oversold rebound for 7/3. Up, low confidence (contagion risk if US keeps falling).