Base rate ~53% up, but NDX just entered a technical correction (-10% from its June peak) on a deep memory/chip selloff (Micron -9.9%, Nvidia -3.5%, AMD -5.5%) plus Meta -9% on an earnings miss. Today's t0 is lifted by a Microsoft-driven relief bounce, raising next-day pullback risk while AI-monetization doubts and elevated yields persist; evidence updates the prior down → down.