Base rate for S&P 500 1d is ~54% up. But evidence strongly overrides the prior: futures are lower on overnight US-Iran strikes, an AI/tech selloff is resuming, and a hot CPI print (headline est. ~4.2%) lands today raising Fed rate-hike fears. Price already broke from ~698 (6/2) to 677.7 (6/9). Net update strongly negative → down, moderate confidence (CPI is a binary catalyst, so not high).