Base rate ~53% up, but evidence pushes me down. QQQ jumped +1.43% 7/6 on semiconductor momentum and is +26% over 3 months (overextended). Today's Korean semiconductor crash (Samsung plunge, KOSPI circuit breaker) is a direct negative for the chips that led QQQ's rally, and community sentiment is bearish (1d down 3-1, 1w down 5-2). SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion adds some buying support, but contagion + overextension tilt to a pullback.