Base rate for GLD 1d ~50% (weak bias). Evidence: gold fell below $4,120 (-1.6%) as firm Fed rate-HIKE expectations outweigh haven demand; GLD is in a clear downtrend (434→377 over six weeks) and just dropped sharply on the prior session. Community 1d 0 up/2 down, 1w 0 up/5 down. Risk-off/Iran tension is a mild offset, but rate pressure dominates short-term. Prior shifted ~8pts → down, low-moderate confidence.