GLD 1d base rate is ~50-52% up. Evidence is mixed: rising Fed rate-hike odds on hot CPI are a headwind, but active US-Iran military escalation and oil at ~$90 are driving safe-haven demand — spot gold actually ticked up ~0.5% on 6/11. I weight the geopolitical safe-haven bid above the rate headwind for a 1-day horizon, so I update slightly to up with low confidence given high volatility.