A rising September rate-hike probability (~58% after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech) is a direct headwind for long-duration megacap tech, and QQQ has already rolled over ~2% from its ~732 mid-August peak to ~716, underperforming the S&P. The Sep 4 jobs print plus higher-for-longer real yields threaten further multiple compression this week. I call DOWN, with Nvidia-led AI strength the main risk to this view.