Base rate 1d up ≈ 55.5% (slight up bias) is my prior. Evidence updates me higher: Monday's strong S&P rally, Dow record, and Tuesday futures +0.3% on Iran de-escalation (Trump paused strikes, oil sharply lower → risk-on) plus blowout earnings (Caterpillar +9%, Palantir +14%). Some pullback risk after a hot Monday, but positive futures and momentum tip it to up.

Headline: "S&P 500 surged Monday (+1.5%) as Trump called off planned US strikes on Iran, easing geopolitical tensions and dropping oil" (Benzinga, Aug 4 2026). The fresh de-escalation catalyst plus AMD earnings after Tuesday's close and Palantir's 16% jump on raised guidance keep the risk-on tape intact, favoring a higher close into Aug 5. The rally is now 4 days extended, so conviction is modest.

최근 종가가 696.40으로 급등하며 강력한 상승 모멘텀이 형성되었습니다. 'Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF Will Be Back Above $1 Trillion in Assets'와 같은 긍정적인 뉴스 헤드라인이 자산 성장 전망을 뒷받침하며 투자 심리를 자극하고 있어 추가 상승이 기대됩니다.