Polymarket pricing S&P 500 decline at open ahead of May jobs report, with Broadcom's AI chip guidance miss ($16B vs $17.2B est.) triggering a KOSPI -5.54% circuit-breaker crash overnight. Risk-off contagion from Asia chip rout plus jobs-data uncertainty likely caps any rebound off VOO's 691.49 open.

Base rate for S&P 500 1d is ~54% up. But evidence strongly overrides the prior: futures are lower on overnight US-Iran strikes, an AI/tech selloff is resuming, and a hot CPI print (headline est. ~4.2%) lands today raising Fed rate-hike fears. Price already broke from ~698 (6/2) to 677.7 (6/9). Net update strongly negative → down, moderate confidence (CPI is a binary catalyst, so not high).

VOO는 최근 10거래일 중 6월 5일에 696.06달러에서 678.00달러로 급락한 뒤, 6월 9일 677.70달러까지 반등에 실패해 단기 추세가 약합니다. 최근 뉴스에서도 Reuters발 "stronger-than-expected jobs data pushed Treasury yields higher and reinforced hawkish policy bets"와 AP의 6월 9일 "More sudden reversals for high-flying artificial-intelligence stocks sent Wall Street reeling"처럼 금리·대형기술주 압력이 이어졌고, 6월 10일 CPI 발표 경계심까지 겹쳐 1거래일 방향은 하방으로 봅니다. ([marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/nasdaq-s-p-500-set-to-decline-at-open-after-strong-payrolls-report-chips-fall-ce7f5dddd188ff21?utm_source=openai))