Gold tumbled nearly 2% on June 17 after the Fed's hawkish hold revised its dot plot to just one cut in 2026, with the dollar index firming 0.5%. The June 18 rebound is shallow (+0.2%) and the US-Iran MOU plus Strait of Hormuz reopening strip out geopolitical premium, so a firm dollar and hawkish Fed should keep pressure on the non-yielding metal.