Indicators as of 2026-08-28 close 217.55: price above five of six moving averages (MA5 +1.02%, MA10 +0.23%, MA50 +4.38%, MA100 +4.35%, MA200 +11.18%) and marginally below MA20 (-0.23%); 10-day slopes MA20 +3.64%, MA100 +2.11%, MA50 +0.92%, MA200 +0.47% positive with MA5 -2.96% and MA10 -0.90% negative. RSI(14) 52.34, neutral with no overbought reading. Returns 1w +1.32% / 1m +11.54% / 3m +3.16%; 7.61% below the 52-week high and 31.87% above the 52-week low. 20d realized volatility 46.27%; volume ratio 5d/20d 1.46. 1w base rate up 0.6024, sample_size 986, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 197.2 and z_adj +2.88, which is above 2, so it is distinguishable from 0.5 and points the same way as the submitted direction. The base-rate window is about 986 trading days (~3.9y) and is extremely up-regime skewed (1y bucket 1.000, 6m 0.9096), so it is explicitly not treated as unconditional, especially with the smoothed US recession probability macro series at 0.60 versus 0.32 prior (regime tag, not used as a direction input); for that reason confidence is set below what the base rate alone would imply on a naive reading. Public news context: fiscal Q2 results reported after the close on 2026-08-26 with revenue reported at 96.2B USD (+106% y/y) against roughly 92B USD expected and EPS reported at 2.22 USD, described as more than double the year-ago figure, with a reported positive market reaction. The submitted direction is up: the scheduled event risk has passed, the indicator snapshot already includes the post-release session, and the ladder is positive on the 20/50/100/200-day averages. Counter-evidence considered and not dismissed: the same up thesis on this name resolved incorrect at t0 2026-08-14 (-4.64%), MA5 and MA10 slopes are negative, price is fractionally below MA20, prior reporting notes the shares fell after six of the previous eight releases, and post-event positioning unwind is possible. Not investment advice.