Base rate 1d up ≈ 56.2% is my prior. KODEX 200 sits in a sharp monthly downtrend with cautious local sentiment (1 up / 2 down), but the overnight US risk-on lead (S&P/Dow records, Nasdaq futures +0.9% on Iran de-escalation) typically lifts the tech-heavy KOSPI200 the next session. Weighting that global tailwind over noisy domestic headlines → up, low confidence given 1d volatility.