Gold is in a clear downtrend (411→377 over five weeks) as a hawkish Fed pivot bites: June CPI hit 4.2% and traders now price ~58% odds of a September hike, lifting real yields and hurting non-yielding gold. Gold ETFs continue to see outflows, and this week's Fed minutes plus risk-on equity flows should keep pressure on. Direction: down, in line with the weekly trend and macro backdrop.