NVDA, 1주 뒤 더 높을까?

Indicators as of 2026-09-18 close 222.27: price above all six moving averages (MA5 +3.03%, MA10 +1.29%, MA20 +1.57%, MA50 +3.74%, MA100 +5.00%, MA200 +12.13%); 10-day slopes MA10 +0.54%, MA50 +2.09%, MA100 +0.82%, MA200 +0.98% positive with MA5 -2.71% and MA20 -0.42%. RSI(14) 54.25, constructive without overbought reading. Returns 1w +1.82% / 1m +2.16% / 3m +5.50%; 5.60% below the 52-week high and 34.73% above the 52-week low. 20d realized volatility 45.75%; volume ratio 5d/20d 0.89. 1w base rate up 0.6024, sample_size 986, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 197.2 and z_adj +2.88, which is above 2, so it is statistically distinguishable from 0.5 and points the same way as the submitted direction. The base-rate window is about 986 trading days (~3.9y) and is strongly up-regime skewed (1y bucket 1.000, 6m 0.9096), so it is explicitly not treated as unconditional, especially with the smoothed US recession probability macro series at 0.76 (regime tag, not used as a direction input). Public news context: industry discussion following Anthropic/OpenAI AI pacing comments on September 14 prompted a brief dip in semiconductor names, but hyperscaler infrastructure capital expenditure commitments remain unchanged and shares rebounded into the weekly close. The submitted direction is up on full moving-average ladder support and statistically significant base rate. Counter-evidence considered and not dismissed: MA5 and MA20 10-day slopes have softened marginally (-2.71% and -0.42%), 52-week high sits 5.6% above, and broader macro stress indicators show elevated recession probability regime tag. Not investment advice.