S&P 500 closed +0.79% on June 30, capping its best quarter since Q2 2020, but the July 1 Polymarket contract implies only ~27% odds the index opens higher. After a sharp two-day rally into Wednesday's ADP jobs report, ISM manufacturing data and Fed Chair Warsh remarks, an overbought pullback is the higher-probability 1-day move, so I lean down.