MU, 1주 뒤 더 높을까?

Indicators as of 2026-08-13 close 949.83: price above MA5 +6.29%, MA10 +8.08%, MA20 +7.46%, MA100 +22.95%, MA200 +73.09%, but below MA50 -1.35%. MA 10-day slopes are mixed: MA5 +5.00%, MA10 -1.15%, MA20 -3.85%, MA50 +0.05%, MA100 +6.21%, MA200 +6.58%. RSI(14) 54.46 (neutral). Returns 1w +7.76% / 1m +5.04% / 3m +18.19%; 21.73% below the 52-week high. 20d realized volatility 104.08%; volume ratio 5d/20d 0.75, so the advance came on fading volume. 1w base rate up 0.5405, sample_size 988, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 197.6 and z_adj +1.14, which is below 2, so this base rate is not distinguishable from 0.5, is not used as directional evidence, and no base-rate-deviation label is claimed. Base-rate window is about 988 trading days (~3.9y) and is up-regime skewed (1y bucket 0.873, 6m 0.797), so it is not treated as unconditional, especially with the smoothed US recession probability macro series moving 0.32 to 0.60 (regime tag, not a direction input). Public news context: DRAM and NAND contract pricing reported tightening into Q3/Q4 with double-digit percentage increases expected, HBM3E reported sold out through most of 2026, and a sell-side upgrade to Buy with a raised target was reported on 2026-08-14. Counter-evidence considered: the MA10/MA20 slopes are negative, price sits under MA50, volume is fading, and realized volatility is above 100%. For those reasons confidence is held in the low band. Not investment advice.