WMT, 1주 뒤 더 높을까?

Indicators as of 2026-08-20 close 103.84: RSI(14) 29.78, the lowest in this week's candidate set. Price is below all six moving averages (MA5 -7.77%, MA10 -8.30%, MA20 -7.70%, MA50 -8.86%, MA100 -13.37%, MA200 -12.27%), but the 10-day MA slopes for the 5/10/20/200-day averages remain positive (+0.91%, +1.34%, +0.36%, +0.38%), with only MA50 -0.71% and MA100 -0.75% negative. Returns 1w -10.27% / 1m -5.02% / 3m -20.64%; 22.62% below the 52-week high and 8.55% above the 52-week low. 20d realized volatility 39.30%; volume ratio 5d/20d 1.37. 1w base rate up 0.5770, sample_size 981, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 196.2 and z_adj +2.16, so it is distinguishable from 0.5 and points the same way as the submitted direction. The base-rate window is about 981 trading days (~3.9y) and is strongly up-regime skewed (1y bucket 1.000, 6m 0.945), so it is not treated as unconditional, especially with the smoothed US recession probability macro series at 0.60 versus 0.32 prior (regime tag, not used as a direction input). Public news context: Q2 revenue reported at 187.94B USD (+6% y/y) with adjusted EPS 0.81 USD against a 0.74 USD consensus and full-year guidance reported raised, while US same-store sales grew 2.6% against a roughly 3.7% consensus and were described as the slowest since Q4 2020; management was reported citing fuel costs and price reductions to defend share, and shares fell about 9% on 2026-08-20. Counter-evidence considered: the entire moving-average ladder is negative, the 3-month return is -20.64%, and a guidance-driven de-rating can persist beyond one week. The last available close on 2026-08-21 at 103.70 is -0.13% from the snapshot close. Not investment advice.