MRVL, 1주 뒤 더 높을까?

Indicators as of 2026-08-28 close 216.62: price below four of six moving averages (MA5 -7.65%, MA10 -7.76%, MA20 -3.37%, MA50 -5.22%) and above MA100 +2.53% and MA200 +45.76%; 10-day slopes MA5 +8.38%, MA10 +10.01%, MA20 +10.69%, MA100 +6.80%, MA200 +5.09% positive with MA50 -4.01% negative. RSI(14) 47.16, neutral. Returns 1w -8.61% / 1m +18.18% / 3m +5.67%; 31.54% below the 52-week high. 20d realized volatility 90.23%, the highest in this week's candidate set; volume ratio 5d/20d 1.18. 1w base rate up 0.5549, sample_size 993, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 198.6 and z_adj +1.55, which is below 2, so this base rate is not distinguishable from 0.5, is not used as directional evidence, and no base-rate-deviation label is claimed. The base-rate window is about 993 trading days (~3.9y) and is up-regime skewed (1y bucket 0.7842, 6m 0.7471), so it is not treated as unconditional, especially with the smoothed US recession probability macro series at 0.60 versus 0.32 prior (regime tag, not used as a direction input). Public news context: fiscal Q2 results reported on 2026-08-27 with revenue reported at 2.739B USD (+37% y/y) and EPS reported at 0.94 USD against roughly 2.71B USD and 0.93 USD expected, fiscal 2027 revenue guidance reported raised to about 12B USD and fiscal 2028 to about 18B USD, while gross margin was reported guided to 57.5-58.5% versus a reported 58.9% prior quarter, and the shares were reported down about 8-10% on 2026-08-28. The submitted direction is down: a reported guidance-driven margin de-rating placed price below the 5/10/20/50-day averages with the MA50 slope negative. Counter-evidence considered and not dismissed: the 5/10/20-day slopes are still strongly positive, price is 7.65% below MA5 after a single session which is itself a stretched short-term reading, RSI is neutral rather than weak, and reported revenue guidance was raised; confidence is therefore held near the low end. Not investment advice.