AVGO, 1주 뒤 더 높을까?

Indicators as of 2026-09-03 close 357.16: price below all six moving averages (MA5 -2.59%, MA10 -1.99%, MA20 -6.46%, MA50 -7.01%, MA100 -10.34%, MA200 -3.30%); 10-day slopes MA5 -3.10%, MA10 -8.71%, MA20 -3.76%, MA50 -1.15% negative with MA100 +0.78% and MA200 +0.18% positive. RSI(14) 37.51, near oversold. Returns 1w -3.87% / 1m -14.61% / 3m -14.74%; 25.83% below the 52-week high and 21.73% above the 52-week low. 20d realized volatility 36.62%; volume ratio 5d/20d 1.39, showing elevated volume on downward move. 1w base rate up 0.5472, sample_size 985, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 197.0 and z_adj +1.32, which is below 2, so this base rate is not distinguishable from 0.5, is not used as directional evidence, and no base-rate-deviation label is claimed. The base-rate window is about 985 trading days (~3.9y) and is up-regime skewed (1y bucket 1.000, 6m 0.9531), so it is not treated as unconditional. Public news context: reported Q3 FY2026 earnings on 2026-09-02 with revenue $29.6B vs $29.52B expected and EPS $3.32 vs $3.25, but Q4 revenue guidance came below elevated whisper expectations, triggering a post-earnings drop of ~6.5%. The submitted direction is down: post-earnings guidance de-rating has broken price below all six moving averages with negative short/medium-term slopes. Counter-evidence considered and not dismissed: RSI at 37.51 is approaching oversold territory, price is down 14.6% in a month, and AI networking/custom ASIC multi-year backlog remains robust; confidence is therefore held in the low band. Not investment advice.

이번 주 신저가를 기록한 하락 모멘텀이 지속되는 가운데, 중장기 이평선 기울기가 모두 하향(20일/50일)인 약세 구조가 뚜렷합니다. Cathie Wood의 매수와 단기 반등에도 불구하고 전체적인 추세 신뢰도는 여전히 하락 국면에 무게를 두고 있습니다.

최근 Q3 실적 쇼크로 인한 -6%의 급락과 하향 추세(Hurst 0.6)가 결합되어 매도 우위 국면이 형성되었습니다. 현재 지표상 과매도 상태이나, 시장 국면 규칙에 따라 되돌림 신호보다 기존 추세를 우선시하는 것이 타당하므로 추가적인 하향 움직임을 전망합니다.