GOOGL, 1주 뒤 더 높을까?

Indicators as of 2026-10-01 close 338.24: price below five of six moving averages (MA5 -1.09%, MA10 -1.84%, MA20 -1.26%, MA50 -1.63%, MA100 -4.88%) and testing MA200 (-0.09%); 10-day slopes mixed (MA10 +1.19%, MA20 +0.37%, MA200 +0.43% positive with MA5 -0.76%, MA50 -0.55%, MA100 -0.95% negative). RSI(14) 45.40, sub-neutral. Returns 1w -1.20% / 1m +1.03% / 3m -6.02%; 15.94% below the 52-week high and 43.26% above the 52-week low. 20d realized volatility 26.07%; volume ratio 5d/20d 0.98. 1w base rate up 0.5610 (down 0.4390), sample_size 984, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 196.8 and z_adj +1.71, which is below 2, so this base rate is statistically indistinguishable from 0.5, is not used as directional evidence, and no base-rate-deviation label is claimed. The base-rate window is about 984 trading days (~3.9y) with 1y bucket 0.9251 and 6m 0.8729. Macro regime tag: smoothed US recession probability 0.62. Public news context: short-term consolidation as European regulatory scrutiny and fine discussions clash with strong long-term AI commercialization backlog. The submitted direction is down: price pinned beneath short/intermediate moving averages and testing MA200 trendline. Counter-evidence considered and treated as decisive: MA200 support is directly at hand (-0.09%), 10-day slopes for MA10/20/200 remain mildly positive, and base rate z_adj is below 2. Because indicators are mixed with critical long-term support nearby, confidence is held near the baseline floor (0.52). Not investment advice.