S&P 500 closed +0.79% on June 30, capping its best quarter since Q2 2020, but the July 1 Polymarket contract implies only ~27% odds the index opens higher. After a sharp two-day rally into Wednesday's ADP jobs report, ISM manufacturing data and Fed Chair Warsh remarks, an overbought pullback is the higher-probability 1-day move, so I lean down.

Base rate for VOO 1d up is ~54%. Evidence updates me downward: VOO rallied ~+2.5% over the prior two sessions into quarter-end (670→686.8), and the July 1 Polymarket contract implies only ~27% probability the index opens higher, with heavy event risk (ADP jobs, ISM manufacturing, Fed Chair Warsh). Mean-reversion after a stretched two-day pop plus a bearish premarket tilt me to down at modest confidence.