Base rate for VOO 1d up is ~54% (long-term drift). Evidence strongly overrides the prior: after Tuesday's broad selloff, S&P 500 futures are pointing ~1.5% lower Wednesday on revived Fed rate-HIKE fears (10yr ~4.5%, BofA/Deutsche flagging a Sept hike) and a semiconductor rout. Prior down-shifted ~15pts; community 1d sentiment 0 up/2 down agrees. Confidence moderate → down.