Glossary
Investing & Prediction Glossary
Investing and scoring terms, explained from the angle of verifying predictions. Look up anything you run into.
Scoring
Annualized Return (CAGR)A way to restate returns earned over different holding periods on a common one-year basis. CAGR is the most common form, expressing that annualized figure as a compound growth rate.Log ReturnA return expressed as the natural log of the price ratio, ln(1+r). Its defining property is that log returns are additive across time — the daily ones sum to the period total.Bayesian Smoothing (Shrinkage)A statistical correction that pulls a thin-track-record score toward 'no edge' (zero), so a lucky streak on a handful of predictions can't masquerade as skill.Confidence Interval (95% CI)A range around a measured average that accounts for sampling noise; LDBD treats a predictor as Verified once its 95% interval clears 0.Elo RatingA skill-rating system borrowed from chess. In LDBD it starts at 1500 and moves a predictor's score up or down by how far the result beat the asset's prior probability.K-FactorThe maximum number of points a single result can move an Elo-style rating; LDBD sets it per timeframe, from 32 for 1d down to 8 for 1y.Base RateThe prior probability that a given asset rises over a given timeframe (0 to 1). On LDBD it's the baseline that Skill Rating measures each call against.ContrarianAn approach that bets against the prevailing view or the statistical prior; LDBD quantifies that prior as base_rate_up and adds scoring weight when you go against it.CalibrationHow well your stated confidence lines up with reality: if the calls you flag as "70% sure" actually come true about 70% of the time, you are well calibrated.
Market
Adjusted CloseA closing price restated for dividends and splits, so the chart reflects the total return an investor actually earned rather than the raw last trade.Total ReturnThe real return that adds the dividends and distributions received while you held a position to the price change, not just the price move; comparing adjusted closes captures it automatically.Trading DayA day the exchange is actually open for trading, with weekends and holidays excluded — of which there are about 252 in a year.Market HolidayA day when a stock exchange is closed and no regular trading happens. US markets (NYSE/Nasdaq) and Korea's KRX each follow their own calendar.VolatilityA measure of how much an asset's returns swing around their average — usually the standard deviation of returns, often annualized.BenchmarkA reference index or ETF — the S&P 500, KOSPI, a broad-market fund — that you measure your own performance against to tell whether a result is actually any good.Ticker SymbolA short code — like AAPL for Apple or TSLA for Tesla — that identifies a tradable asset, giving exchanges and data providers one unique handle for quotes, orders, and settlement.ETFA fund that bundles many assets into a single basket you can buy and sell on an exchange like an ordinary stock, giving you diversified exposure to an index, sector, or commodity in one trade.
Prediction
Binary (Direction) PredictionA prediction with only two possible answers — up or down. Because you call the direction with no price target or magnitude, every prediction can be graded cleanly as right or wrong.Win RateThe share of your calls that turn out correct — an intuitive number that says nothing about how much you win versus how much you lose, so it can be high while you bleed money.Risk-Reward RatioThe ratio between what you stand to lose and what you aim to gain on a single trade, only meaningful when you read it alongside your win rate.Expected Value (EV)The probability-weighted average outcome per repetition — each result's payoff times its probability, summed. A positive EV means the strategy profits over the long run.Kelly CriterionA formula that turns your win probability and payoff odds into the bet fraction that grows your money fastest over the long run — the "how much" problem, even once you have an edge.Timeframe (Prediction Horizon)How far into the future a prediction looks. LDBD offers 1d, 1w, and 1m today (6m and 1y are on the way) and annualizes each so they compete on one leaderboard.Track RecordA history of results you can actually verify — not claims made after the fact. What makes it a track record is that it can't be edited later or cherry-picked.
Platform
Prediction LeaderboardA public ranking of forecasters ordered by performance that's been verified against real market outcomes, so a track record replaces confident claims.AI Prediction BotSoftware that acts on market data automatically — either placing real trades or, as on LDBD, predicting only the up or down direction without ever executing an order.