Glossary
Investing & Prediction Glossary
Investing and scoring terms, explained from the angle of verifying predictions. Look up anything you run into.
Scoring
Annualized Return (CAGR)A way to restate returns earned over different holding periods on a common one-year basis. CAGR is the most common form, expressing that annualized figure as a compound growth rate.Log ReturnA return expressed as the natural log of the price ratio, ln(1+r). Its defining property is that log returns are additive across time — the daily ones sum to the period total.Bayesian Smoothing (Shrinkage)A statistical correction that pulls a thin-track-record score toward 'no edge' (zero), so a lucky streak on a handful of predictions can't masquerade as skill.Confidence Interval (95% CI)A range around a measured average that accounts for sampling noise; LDBD treats a predictor as Verified once its 95% interval clears 0.Elo RatingA skill-rating system borrowed from chess. In LDBD it starts at 1500 and moves a predictor's score up or down by how far the result beat the asset's prior probability.K-FactorThe maximum number of points a single result can move an Elo-style rating; LDBD sets it per timeframe, from 32 for 1d down to 8 for 1y.Base RateThe prior probability that a given asset rises over a given timeframe (0 to 1). On LDBD it's the baseline that Skill Rating measures each call against.ContrarianAn approach that bets against the prevailing view or the statistical prior; LDBD quantifies that prior as base_rate_up and adds scoring weight when you go against it.CalibrationHow well your stated confidence lines up with reality: if the calls you flag as "70% sure" actually come true about 70% of the time, you are well calibrated.
Market
Adjusted CloseA closing price restated for dividends and splits, so the chart reflects the total return an investor actually earned rather than the raw last trade.Total ReturnThe real return that adds the dividends and distributions received while you held a position to the price change, not just the price move; comparing adjusted closes captures it automatically.Trading DayA day the exchange is actually open for trading, with weekends and holidays excluded — of which there are about 252 in a year.Market HolidayA day when a stock exchange is closed and no regular trading happens. US markets (NYSE/Nasdaq) and Korea's KRX each follow their own calendar.VolatilityA measure of how much an asset's returns swing around their average — usually the standard deviation of returns, often annualized.BenchmarkA reference index or ETF — the S&P 500, KOSPI, a broad-market fund — that you measure your own performance against to tell whether a result is actually any good.Ticker SymbolA short code — like AAPL for Apple or TSLA for Tesla — that identifies a tradable asset, giving exchanges and data providers one unique handle for quotes, orders, and settlement.ETFA fund that bundles many assets into a single basket you can buy and sell on an exchange like an ordinary stock, giving you diversified exposure to an index, sector, or commodity in one trade.RSI (Relative Strength Index)A momentum indicator that compares the strength of recent up days against down days on a 0–100 scale — readings above 70 are often called overbought, below 30 oversold.Moving AverageThe average of recent closing prices, redrawn each day to smooth out daily noise and leave the broader trend — 20-, 50-, and 200-day windows are the common ones.52-Week High / LowThe highest and lowest prices an asset has reached over the past year (~52 weeks), typically expressed as how far today's price sits below the high or above the low.Volume RatioHow the average trading volume of the last few days compares — as a multiple — to a longer-run average, showing whether trading is busier or quieter than usual right now.VIX (Fear Index)The market's expectation, pulled from S&P 500 option prices, of how much the index will swing over the next 30 days — commonly nicknamed the "fear index."Term Spread (Yield Curve)A longer-maturity government bond yield minus a shorter-maturity one; when it turns negative — an inverted curve — it has long been watched as a leading recession signal.Credit SpreadHow much more a company's corporate bond yields than a same-maturity government bond — the extra compensation the market demands for default risk.Financial Stress IndexA single index that bundles many financial gauges — rates, credit spreads, volatility — into one measure of system-wide tension, centered on zero so a positive reading means above-average stress.Breakeven Inflation (BEI)The gap between a nominal government bond yield and an inflation-linked one of the same maturity — the market's expected average inflation over that horizon.Bitcoin DominanceBitcoin's share of the total crypto market capitalization, in percent — a gauge of whether money is concentrated in bitcoin or spread out into altcoins.Kimchi PremiumHow much more expensive bitcoin trades on Korean exchanges than abroad, in percent — a positive value means it's dearer domestically.Sidecar (Program Trading Curb)A Korean-market buffer that suspends program-trading orders for five minutes when futures prices move sharply, a lighter brake than a circuit breaker, which halts the whole market.Circuit BreakerA market-wide safety mechanism that halts all trading when an index falls sharply. In Korea it has three levels (8%, 15%, and 20% drops), and the third ends the trading day.Dead Cat BounceA brief rebound in a falling asset's price that gives way to renewed decline, named for the grim Wall Street saying that even a dead cat bounces if it falls from high enough.Exchange Rate (KRW/USD)The rate at which one currency converts into another. The KRW/USD exchange rate is the number of Korean won it takes to buy one U.S. dollar.PER and PBR (P/E and P/B Ratios)PER divides the share price by earnings per share and PBR divides it by book value per share. Both gauge whether a stock is cheap or expensive relative to a company's profits or assets.Bollinger BandsThree lines drawn as a moving average with a band above and below it set a number of standard deviations away, showing at once how high or low the price sits and whether volatility is widening or narrowing.Dividend YieldThe annual dividend per share divided by the current share price, showing what percent of the price you would collect in dividends over a year of holding the stock.KOSPI and KOSDAQThe two stock markets run by the Korea Exchange. KOSPI is anchored by large, established blue chips, while KOSDAQ is weighted toward technology and growth companies.
Prediction
Binary (Direction) PredictionA prediction with only two possible answers — up or down. Because you call the direction with no price target or magnitude, every prediction can be graded cleanly as right or wrong.Win RateThe share of your calls that turn out correct — an intuitive number that says nothing about how much you win versus how much you lose, so it can be high while you bleed money.Risk-Reward RatioThe ratio between what you stand to lose and what you aim to gain on a single trade, only meaningful when you read it alongside your win rate.Expected Value (EV)The probability-weighted average outcome per repetition — each result's payoff times its probability, summed. A positive EV means the strategy profits over the long run.Kelly CriterionA formula that turns your win probability and payoff odds into the bet fraction that grows your money fastest over the long run — the "how much" problem, even once you have an edge.Timeframe (Prediction Horizon)How far into the future a prediction looks. LDBD offers 1d, 1w, and 1m today (6m and 1y are on the way) and annualizes each so they compete on one leaderboard.Track RecordA history of results you can actually verify — not claims made after the fact. What makes it a track record is that it can't be edited later or cherry-picked.
Platform
Prediction LeaderboardA public ranking of forecasters ordered by performance that's been verified against real market outcomes, so a track record replaces confident claims.AI Prediction BotSoftware that acts on market data automatically — either placing real trades or, as on LDBD, predicting only the up or down direction without ever executing an order.