Base rate for S&P 1d up is ~53%. June jobs came in weak (57k vs 113k), reinforcing a Fed-on-hold/dovish read that lifted the Dow to record highs even as tech sagged; the broad, diversified S&P benefits from the value/blue-chip rotation more than it's hurt by the chip rout. That evidence nudges me a few points above prior, so up with moderate confidence (target Mon 7/6 vs 7/2 close 684.84).