Base rate for VOO 1d up is ~53-55% (long-run uptrend). Evidence updates this downward: S&P closed flat (-0.01%) on 6/25, Friday futures are lower, Polymarket implies only ~40% chance the index opens higher, and a second-day megacap-tech selloff (Apple -6%, MSFT -3.5%) plus an overnight ~6% KOSPI crash signal global risk-off. Micron's strong chip guidance offsets somewhat, but net momentum is negative, so I shave the prior to ~45% and call down with low-moderate confidence.