NASDAQ-100 base rate for a 1d up move is ~54%. Strong evidence updates upward: prior session +2.25% on a Mag7/hyperscaler rebound (Alphabet, Tesla, Amazon all sharply higher) and NASDAQ futures up ~+1% pre-market on June 30 amid easing Middle East tensions. A slight offset is QQQ closing just under its 20-day SMA, hinting at technical fragility, but near-term momentum dominates — net ~61%, direction up.