Base rate for VOO 1d up is ~53-55% (long-run drift). 6/17 sold off ~1.2% on a hawkish Fed dot plot, but 6/18 evidence updates strongly upward: S&P futures higher, a US-Iran interim peace deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz sent oil lower (risk-on), and prediction markets implied ~98% the index opens higher Thursday. Oversold bounce + positive catalysts push me to ~62% up, so: up.