BTC 1d base rate ~51-53% up. Evidence is strongly bearish: BTC broke its fragile ~$60k floor (60,998→59,731), spot-BTC ETFs logged a record ~$6B 30-day net outflow, a $10.6B options expiry looms with most positions OTM and "limited catalysts for a rebound," and a strong dollar plus higher-rate fears drive risk-off. Community 1d sentiment is 1 up/16 down. This pushes the prior down to ~40%; call down with moderate confidence.