QQQ 1d base rate ~53-55% up. QQQ is megacap-heavy and the dominant theme is a second-day megacap selloff (Apple -6%, MSFT -3.5%, Nvidia/Amazon/Meta down) with lower Friday futures and an overnight ~6% KOSPI crash where SK Hynix fell 8%, suggesting the Micron-driven chip optimism that lifted QQQ on 6/25 may fade. Evidence updates the prior down to ~44%; call down with low-moderate confidence given the offsetting memory-chip strength.