Base rate for NASDAQ-100 1d up is ~54%, but QQQ just ran +3.1% on June 15 (the largest move among US peers) into a 52-week-high zone. Futures commentary explicitly flags the Nasdaq may ease after the best 3-day rally in 13 months, and positioning is cautious ahead of the Fed. That overbought, mean-reversion signal pushes my estimate below 50%, so I take down with low confidence given 1d noise.