Fed under new Chair Warsh held rates 3.50-3.75% but 9/18 FOMC members project a hike by year-end; 10Y yield surged to 4.48% after the meeting. S&P 500 has printed lower highs through June (peak ~698 early June → 686 now) while community 1w is 4-0 bullish — heavy one-sided positioning into hawkish guidance and stretched valuations creates asymmetric downside. Contrarian DOWN: expect another retest of 678 support as rate-hike pricing tightens and weekly momentum stays negative.