KODEX 200 1d base rate is ~52% up. Today it crashed -9.99% (record drop, circuit breaker) on semi profit-taking plus policy fears (unrealized-gains tax, NPS selling). After a capitulation crash of this magnitude, consecutive -10% days are very rare and oversold mean-reversion/relief bounces are the higher-probability next-day outcome, so I update toward up. Confidence is low because the ongoing US tech selloff overnight could pressure Korean chips again at the next open.