Base rate for a 1d Bitcoin gain is ~52%. BTC bounced modestly today (~63.5k, +1% intraday) but sits at the lower end of a multi-week downtrend from ~66k, with cautious-to-panic sentiment and a strongly bearish community read (1w up2/down11). After a green intraday session inside a weakening structure, pullback risk outweighs the mild bounce, so I update the prior downward and resolve to down.