Indicators as of 2026-08-06 close 499.86: RSI(14) 78.12, price +19.56% versus MA20 and +12.62% versus MA10, MA5 10-day slope +23.74%, returns 1w +10.81% / 1m +30.40%, 20d realized volatility 57.74% (high for this name), volume ratio 5d/20d 1.24, 7.2% below the 52-week high. Public news context: FY2026 Q4 results reported revenue about 90B USD (+18% y/y) with Azure +43% and Microsoft Cloud crossing 100B USD annualised; reporting on 2026-08-02..03 described an approximately 25% three-day move and roughly 450B USD of added market capitalisation. The submitted direction rests only on the degree of short-term extension above the moving-average ladder after that gap. 1w base rate up 0.5575, sample_size 983, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 196.6, z_adj +1.61, which is below 2, so the base rate is not distinguishable from 0.5 and is not used as directional evidence and no base-rate-deviation label is claimed. Counter-evidence considered: every MA slope from 5 to 100 days is positive and post-earnings drift can continue, which is why confidence is kept in the low band. Not investment advice.