Gold 1d base rate is roughly a coin flip (~51%). Despite today's equity risk-off, GLD fell again as rising Fed rate-hike expectations (Deutsche/BofA now see a Sept hike) and US-Iran peace progress sap safe-haven demand; gold is down ~9.6% over the past month with a clear downtrend in the data (411→385). The fact that gold dropped even on a major risk-off day shows rate-hike fear is dominating, which updates me to a down call with modest confidence; equity-panic safe-haven flows are the main offsetting risk.