Will NVDA close higher after one week?

Indicators as of 2026-08-06 close 218.99: price above all six MAs (MA5 +3.54%, MA20 +6.22%, MA200 +13.12%), RSI(14) 61.38 (not overbought), 20d realized volatility 43.93% (lowest in this weeks candidate set), volume ratio 5d/20d 1.04 (no blow-off), returns 1w +12.28% / 1m +7.28% / 3m +5.49%, 7.0% below the 52-week high. 1w base rate up 0.5933, sample_size 986, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 197.2, z_adj +2.62, so the base rate is distinguishable from 0.5 and points the same way. Public news context: semis recovered as AI-buildout fears eased, and a SpaceX earnings-call statement on NVIDIA-only data-centre chips was reported 2026-08-04..07. Counter-evidence considered: the 1w move is already +12.28%, and the base-rate window is about 986 trading days (~3.9y) dominated by an up-regime (1y bucket base rate 1.0), while the smoothed recession-probability macro series moved 0.32 to 0.60, so the base rate is not treated as unconditional. Confidence held below the top band for that reason. Not investment advice.