Base rate gold 1d ~51% up. Conflicting evidence: US-Iran strikes give a safe-haven bid (bullish), but rate-hike fears from an expected hot CPI dominate and gold is reported falling this morning, with GLD sliding from ~417 (5/29) to 390.8 (6/9). The rate-fear/momentum channel outweighs the geopolitical bid → down, but only low-to-moderate confidence since a safe-haven spike on the conflict is plausible.