Will NVDA close higher after one week?

Indicators as of 2026-08-13 close 225.30: price above all six moving averages (MA5 +1.63%, MA10 +4.02%, MA20 +7.66%, MA50 +9.21%, MA100 +10.62%, MA200 +15.79%), with 10-day slopes MA5 +12.48%, MA10 +7.25%, MA20 +3.09%, MA100 +1.77%, MA200 +0.89% and only MA50 marginally negative at -0.10%. RSI(14) 63.20, below overbought. 20d realized volatility 39.45%, the lowest in this week candidate set; volume ratio 5d/20d 0.85, so no blow-off. Returns 1w +2.88% / 1m +6.02% / 3m -0.12%; 4.32% below the 52-week high. 1w base rate up 0.5943, sample_size 986, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 197.2 and z_adj +2.65, so it is distinguishable from 0.5 and points the same way as the submitted direction. The base-rate window is about 986 trading days (~3.9y) and is up-regime dominated (1y bucket 0.898), so it is not treated as unconditional. Public news context: Q2 FY2027 results are scheduled for 2026-08-26, after this 1w window closes on 2026-08-21, so the report is not a catalyst inside the window; reporting cites roughly 80% AI-accelerator share with competition from AMD, Intel and hyperscaler custom silicon. Counter-evidence considered and not treated as decisive: the 3-month return is flat at -0.12%, the MA50 slope has turned marginally negative, and the smoothed US recession probability macro series moved 0.32 to 0.60 (regime tag, not used as a direction input) while the base-rate sample was drawn from an up regime. Not investment advice.