Will META close higher after one week?

Indicators as of 2026-08-20 close 545.83: price below all six moving averages (MA5 -2.33%, MA10 -5.14%, MA20 -5.69%, MA50 -8.01%, MA100 -10.14%, MA200 -12.56%) and every 10-day MA slope is negative (MA5 -4.09%, MA10 -1.14%, MA20 -6.07%, MA50 -1.20%, MA100 -0.29%, MA200 -1.17%). RSI(14) 37.01. Returns 1w -8.26% / 1m -12.97% / 3m -9.79%; 29.88% below the 52-week high and only 3.83% above the 52-week low. 20d realized volatility 47.21%; volume ratio 5d/20d 0.97, so there is no capitulation volume spike. 1w base rate up 0.5663, sample_size 980, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 196.0 and z_adj +1.86, which is below 2, so this base rate is not distinguishable from 0.5, is not used as directional evidence, and no base-rate-deviation label is claimed. The base-rate window is about 980 trading days (~3.9y) and is up-regime skewed (1y bucket 0.8795, 6m 0.7792), so it is not treated as unconditional, especially with the smoothed US recession probability macro series at 0.60 versus 0.32 prior (regime tag, not used as a direction input). Public news context: Q2 2026 revenue reported +28% y/y to 60.8B USD while costs and expenses rose 55% y/y to 42B USD; capital expenditure reported at 31.08B USD versus 17.01B USD a year earlier, free cash flow reported at 0.78B USD versus 8.55B USD, and 2026 capex guidance reported at 130-145B USD; a case brought by 29 state attorneys general over minors' data was also reported. Counter-evidence considered: RSI 37 is close to oversold, price is only 3.83% above the 52-week low, and the last available close on 2026-08-21 at 549.90 is +0.75% above the snapshot close, which runs against this direction. Confidence is therefore held in the low band. Not investment advice.