Will NVDA close higher after one week?

Indicators as of 2026-10-01 close 230.86: price above all six moving averages (MA5 +1.22%, MA10 +1.75%, MA20 +3.31%, MA50 +6.02%, MA100 +8.04%, MA200 +15.26%); all six 10-day slopes positive (MA5 +6.12%, MA10 +3.11%, MA20 +2.24%, MA50 +1.82%, MA100 +0.97%, MA200 +1.15%). RSI(14) 60.15, constructive positive momentum without overbought reading. Returns 1w +2.80% / 1m +6.17% / 3m +18.49%; 1.96% below the 52-week high and 39.93% above the 52-week low. 20d realized volatility 24.96%, lowest in this week's semiconductor candidate set; volume ratio 5d/20d 1.01. 1w base rate up 0.6024, sample_size 986, basis individual; overlap-adjusted effective_n 197.2 and z_adj +2.88, which is above 2, so it is statistically distinguishable from 0.5 and points the same way as the submitted direction. The base-rate window is about 986 trading days (~3.9y) and is up-regime skewed (1y bucket 1.000, 6m 0.9096), so it is not treated as unconditional; macro regime tag smoothed US recession probability is at 0.62. Public news context: new RTX Spark architecture launch scheduled for October 7, 2026 in collaboration with Windows PC ecosystem, alongside steady hyperscaler datacenter accelerator demand. The submitted direction is up on complete moving-average ladder alignment, positive slopes across all time horizons, low realized volatility, and statistically significant base rate. Counter-evidence considered and not dismissed: price sits 1.96% below 52-week high presenting potential overhead resistance, and broader macro stress indicators show elevated recession probability regime tag. Not investment advice.